Monday, December 29, 2008

My "7 Monitor" set up

After getting frustrated with my current set up and contemplating buying several monitors for real, I decided to give this a try first to see whether I could get the same basic functionality out of a virtual multi-monitor set up. I'm taking advantage of the "Spaces" technology from Apple to set up 6 distinct virtual desktops:


Anyway here is my set up:


I have 4 screens for watchlists, so I can separate the combo lists from the short list and also have some room to chart what comes off the hod list. The 5th screen is for the chat and the 6th is for IB. The 7th you ask? That is where I run Windows XP in the background where I have Scottrade Elite running Trade Ideas (detailed here) with my backfiltered list of deadly combo stocks (detailed here).

The great thing about this set up, actually the only thing that really makes it functional, is the fact that I can set each window to a quick key for instant and direct access. I find this direct pivot actually to be about the same as moving one's eyes and refocusing on a new screen. Anyway if I find that it just isn't working out then I will invest in a multi-monitor set up. But for now this has the advantage that I can bring it with me wherever I go, like now.

** UPDATE

To clarify about Spaces- it is true, for obvious reasons if you think it through, that an application can only exist in one space only. To get around this problem I use a different web browser in each space. Therefore, the number of spaces ("watchlist monitors") is really only limited by this, since the number of virtual windows you can create is limitless. There seems to be no shortage of browsers available so this is not a problem. I use: Safari, Firefox, Camino, Seamonkey, Stainless, and Opera. Of course IE is also available (puke) and a few others probably. I can also use Chrome on the Windows side, although there is no need since that does not exist on the Spaces interface so I can have multiple browsers open there as well (I run the hod list from Firefox; running it on the Windows side allows for the freeze frame technique).

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

What I've been doing over the holidays

1-  Going over all the chat logs to make lists of all the stocks in play
2- Going over all the chat logs to chart the premarket leaders looking to see how they played long and short
3- vomiting violently due to some mysterious virus
4- trading occasionally (here is SIL from today (unrealized))


5- reading Brian Shannon's great book
6- reading another great book from Brett Steenbarger (I will post about later)
7- taking care of my wife who is vomiting violently from the virus that I gave her
8- tweaking my "7 monitor set up" (hehe)
9- complaining about the lack of borrows from IB (really!)

The situation has really been quite comical. After I got ill at my parents' house (after spending 3 days at my wife's parents'), unable to even get out of bed, then my wife got sick, causing us to delay our flight back, only to have the plumbing blow up forcing us to retreat to a hotel at the airport (where I'm writing this). We will try to fly out tomorrow. It's amazing I was even able to trade today.

Speaking of IB, it's awesome of course. But I can't believe given my extremely limited trading, that already on 2 shorts I tried to get, EPIX and HPSO, I was denied... I know nothing is perfect, but geez... maybe this means I'm just too slow...

How has everyone else's vacation been?

** UPDATE

I had to update the picture 4 times because my SIL profit kept going up in afterhours, hehe 

Friday, December 19, 2008

Funds available Dec 22

Apparently there is a 4 day hold on new deposits at IB? Plus I waited 4 days for all the funds to settle before I could pull out of the other brokers. This is why I waited until now to do this. I hate missing all the action, but I'm reading about it in the chat logs. I will be able to trade again on Monday. However I am going to be traveling and I don't know how much control I will have over my schedule. 

I will try to keep my blog updated in the mean time- this weekend I will show you my "7 monitor" set up that I have been working on in my down time. I will also post an excerpt from the book I am reading and show you how that Muddy displays the behavioral characteristics of a genius trader... and how you can try to get yourself into that framework.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Down for a bit

I'm going to be off until I finish moving over to IB. Plus my head is throbbing from this unfinished root canal. 

Sunday, December 7, 2008

A great combination

I have to say I'm loving Yngvai's Correlation filter... I've added day range to it so here is a watchlist of stocks that are all over 80% red on $DJI red... AND all over 20% ADR5! A delicious combination.

RAS ARA UEPS FCH ICOG FTK GRA URE GNW

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Watches Monday Dec. 8

HIG OGXI BBX RDN TLB LCC HRP PGI OREX ATPG

Lots of run ups but a few others...

LCC and all airlines on 4+ day run up, keep on short watch... these are good options plays also, will detail in future posts
OREX huge down, could be bad news so keep on watch ala CPE 
ATPG 88% down on $DJI red
PGI 1 day up, 1 day down... guess which day we are on
HRP look at what happens to the chart when it ends on high of day... where did it end Friday

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Watches Thursday Dec. 4

LSI ATPG BBX HRP PPO IFLO OWW ASTI IMP PGI

I'm really digging the late day run ups... nothing like RAS today but HRP nice.. and BBX back to 3 is why it's back on the list...

also on watch: Vanessa Ng (just kidding)

also... did my blog get mentioned on ft-talk.com? I got a lot of traffic from there today... I hope you are saying nice things haha

thanks everyone for the birthday wishes

The Daily Babe-o


Vanessa Ng

Global Vento part II

Really getting a nice cross section of hits. This is only the most recent 500. Thanks everyone!



Anatomy of a day trade: BBX

That is one beautiful chart.



After reviewing the chart I changed to a limit order



This was the key to the entire trade since I got filled at 3.30.



Penny by penny we wait




I consider this a successful trade at this point.


A very nice dip below 3 however the spread is like .15 here so no opportunity to cover.




Who buys into a falling chart like that with a spread of .15-.20???




Trading sideways now. Will take here. Even though I really wanted this one below 3, the market is surging now and I don't want to fight the headwind. 



I will take profits and move on to the next one.



Position entry:  A+  
Position exit:     B
Overall trade:    A-


This trade alone meets tortexal's requirements of making $200 per day.

Happy birthday to me.



** UPDATE

So I looks like I'm missing out on a big part of the trade. There are two reasons for this. The first is that I am forced to make decisions about when to close a trade that are less than ideal because they aren't about the trade itself. Because I have to go to work I will be away from the computer for 45 minutes and I don't always have time to watch trades during the day. The second reason is that I have a hair trigger for taking profits which I consider to be both a good and bad thing. On this trade my instinct was good in that the reversal was real. However that stock dropped sharply the following morning so in the end patience would have paid off. Am I glad I took that trade when I did? Yes in part because the market could have rallied the next day and I would have potentially had a losing position. I can't get too upset about it because I made profit... that is the most important thing. I changed my exit to B.


Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Watches My Birthday Dec. 3

RAS ISSC BBX HRP BC CRMT STSI PLD SAH OVEN RMBS EGY PGI ATPG YRCW 

RAS

I'm going to do something I don't usually do, I will try to short RAS in premarket tomorrow since open is usually too late


Monday, December 1, 2008

Watches Tues Dec. 2

FRPT YRCW XING OVEN RMBS EGY PGI ATPG (still)

My favorites from other lists... sorry I didn't have time to do any scans today

My favorites on this list are EGY PGI ATPG

I will have an upcoming post about how a stock's chart feel makes me want to trade it or stay away 

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Saturday, November 29, 2008

A "new" Muddy filter

Muddy mentioned back in comments about how white candle around the lower Bollinger Band with a tail as long as the body or bigger can kickstart a rally. I know he talks about white candles under LBB on his blog but I don't think this tail data has ever been coded. Anyway I just did. And the backtest is pretty ridiculous. 

show stocks where close is above open 

and price is between 1 and 20 

and average day range is above 3

and average volume(90) is above 700000

and set{bottail,open-low} 

and set{body,close-open}

and bottail > body

and price touched lower bollinger band(20)



Here are some of the backtest results











** UPDATE

I suppose this is a bullish hammer... however I think the combination of the LBB position makes it more powerful

Watches Monday Dec. 1

WYN ATPG CI DNR MEE DYN FNF URBN AEO

These are all run ups that had a red candle on Friday. They aren't picked up on the Red Floater scan because they are under the upper Bollinger Band but it is the same idea. They are ranked in order of highest probability short on $DJI red. My favorites from everyone elses lists are

YRCW XTEX OCNF TRW SOLR PPC AXL STSI HTZ

Friday, November 28, 2008

A possible logo



Surprisingly accurate.

Shameless

I've decided to post hot chicks in a shameless attempt to get more readers on my blog...

Jarah Mariano 




Just kidding

(Or am I?)

Anatomy of a day trade

To make the blog more interesting I've decided to post same play-by-plays of actual trades that I make from time to time. The hope is to get more into chart details and analysis of what goes right and wrong during the trade. To start things off I will post my trade of ATPG from today.

Eyeing it up at open



After giving it 5 minutes I decide it's worth a trade



I get in with a market order a few seconds later



Early success!



What to do? Ride through the bump or get out?



This is why I like Ramtajogi's calculator so much. When the Dow surges, the odds of the short go from fantastic to a coin flip.



These aren't just abstract stats. The uptrend in ATPG directly coincides with the Dow moving steadily up at 11:00.


I got out at 6.18. 

It turns out that was a decent exit since this was a true reversal. 



Final profit


So this isn't really a bragging post. The trade was less than ideal since I had multiple chances to take profit below $6 but didn't. I left about $200 on the table. I give my entry an A and my exit a B- so overall trade: B+

This is where trading strategy gets interesting. Is it better to hold multiday or get out early? The answer has more to do with your personality- I like getting in and out of a trade with decent profit to show for my effort and hate to see reversals take it all back. On the other hand the multiday holds that Muddy does usually result in more profit. 

Post any ideas for future things you'd like to see on the blog. It will be impossible to post every trade but I'll try to post some interesting ones.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Watches Friday Nov. 28

RAS PCK HWD HDNG LEN BBX

RAS ended with a spike... the last 2 times it did that it dropped significantly
PCK bad news panic sell, may continue
HWD 90% correlation on $DJI red in November... nobody wants diamonds haha
HDNG same
LEN 3 days up, historically good chance for failure, 80% correlation for Nov
BBX reliable downtrend, can barely string together 2 white candles in a row

may add some more later

** UPDATE 

sorry I haven't added any more- by the way all of Yngvai's picks are great- I didn't put them on my list because I'm trying to find different ones from others- however I do evaluate everyone's watchlists, as per my comment that I shorted HRP off of Yng's list

many more great picks on Muddy's list and stackyourcream... my favorites now are ATPG and IPCS... excellent looking charts and good odds for shorting if the market is down today

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Proof that Timothy Sykes is using SPAMMERS to sell his products

Many who follow the Timothy Sykes drama know that there is an annoying acolyte, one Jeremy K, who is relentlessly spamming people trying to get people to buy Tim's products. Worse still, he uses a 'faux' spam site to lure unsuspecting 'prey' into a site that purports to be about deconstructing Sykes, yet instead leads one through a maze that in the end pressures the 'prey' into in fact signing up for Sykes' 'service'. As annoying as I found all that mess, I never thought much about it. However, after receiving a series of emails, which I describe below, I now come to believe that the 'Jeremy K' SPAM operation is in fact run by Sykes himself. The proof follows.

Here is a screenshot of the original SPAM: keep in mind, I put Jeremy K on my spam filter, so nothing from him should have gotten through:



All of that is one thing. Yet when I responded to this email, minutes later, Pallian responded acting like he didn't know what is going on:


In his defense, Pallian claims to not know what is going on. He implies that the actions of Jeremy K are 'rogue' in behavior. However, if you review the original SPAM, it clearly shows Pallian's email listed as 'Jeremy K'.

Let's keep an eye out for how truthful that is. We already have reason to believe that the Sykes operation has compromised its integrity; it once blasted Beacon Research (saying it 'sold its soul') but later accepted Beacon as a sponsor. Stay tuned.



Yes Pallian. I now have direct proof that you are linked to a SPAM site. If I can determine this is illegal, I will also look into Better Business Bureau practices about using SPAM and lying about it. Do you want to bank on whether or not this will be a problem for you? Then clear it up soon.

** UPDATE

Apparently Timothy Sykes doesn't care that someone is spoofing his email- Pallian at least acted concerned- he pretty much states his position in comments that he doesn't care. More proof that the two are actually connected in a working operation rather that as just an 'affiliate'. This certainly is sketchy behavior- just as sketchy as taking sponsorship money from a company that you once blasted as a SPAMMER- I guess it takes one to know one.


FROM THIS:



TO THIS IN A FEW SHORT MONTHS

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Watches Monday Nov. 24

DAC HALO PLD TRMA YRCW HUGH RLF RPF AMCC CPE IPG AMCC STXS

DAC 87/77
HALO 87/40
PLD 85/36
TRMA 85/57
YRCW 85/57
HUGH 85/50
RLF 82/33
RPF 82/40
AMCC 82/43
CPE 80/43
IPG 82/26
AMCC 82/43
STXS 75/33

And my pick of the day is: DAC

Muddy filter 3 day fail - JV modification

I spent this morning analyzing the fail filter. Yes, this is how I spend my Sunday mornings. I believe Muddy said that the original intent of this filter was to look for weak stocks that were ready to pop. In that regard the filter selects for longer bottom tails than top ones as a sign of reversal. For shorts, we want the opposite- shorter bottom tails and less reversal. So I flipped the code to reflect that point.  I only changed 3 words- you can copy the code below. I put this in a separate post so you can use both filters as you see fit. Very nice coding by Murknd.


set{x,count(volume 3 days ago above volume 4 days ago,1)*2} and set{y,count(volume 3 days ago above average volume(90),3)} and set{z,x+y} and z is above 1.1 and close 3 days ago had been decreasing over the last 3 days and average volume(90) 3 days ago is above 100000 and close 3 days ago is between 1 and 10 and low 3 days ago is below lower bollinger band(20) 3 days ago and count(close 3 days ago above open 3 days ago,3) is below 2.1 and day change has been below 0 for the last 3 days and set{a,count(volume above volume 1 day ago,1)} and set{toptail,high-open} and set{bottail,close-low} and set{taildelta,bottail-toptail} and set{b,count(taildelta is below 0,1)} and set{c,a+b} and c is above 0 and set{d,count(volume 1 day ago above volume 2 days ago,1)} and set{toptaila,high 1 day ago-open 1 day ago} and set{bottaila,close 1 day ago-low 1 day ago} and set{taildeltaa,bottaila-toptaila} and set{e,count(taildeltaa is below 0,1)} and set{f,d+e} and f is above 0 and set{g,count(volume 2 days ago above volume 3 days ago,1)} and set{toptailb,high 2 days ago-open 2 days ago} and set{bottailb,close 2 days ago-low 2 days ago} and set{taildeltab,bottailb-toptailb} and set{h,count(taildeltab is below 0,1)} and set{i,g+h} and i is above 0 offset is 0

** UPDATE

2 day and 1 day fail filters with JV modification



2 day fail

set{x,count(volume 2 days ago above volume 3 days ago,1)*2} and set{y,count(volume 2 days ago above average volume(90),3)} and set{z,x+y} and z is above 1.1 and close 2 days ago had been decreasing over the last 3 days and average volume(90) 2 days ago is above 100000 and close 2 days ago is between 1 and 10 and low 2 days ago is below lower bollinger band(20) 2 days ago and count(close 2 days ago above open 2 days ago,3) is below 2.1 and day change has been below 0 for the last 2 days and set{a,count(volume above volume 1 day ago,1)} and set{toptail,high-open} and set{bottail,close-low} and set{taildelta,bottail-toptail} and set{b,count(taildelta is below 0,1)} and set{c,a+b} and c is above 0 and set{d,count(volume 1 day ago above volume 2 days ago,1)} and set{toptaila,high 1 day ago-open 1 day ago} and set{bottaila,close 1 day ago-low 1 day ago} and set{taildeltaa,bottaila-toptaila} and set{e,count(taildeltaa is below 0,1)} and set{f,d+e} and f is above 0


1 day fail

set{x,count(volume 1 day ago above volume 2 days ago,1)*2} and set{y,count(volume 1 day ago above average volume(90),3)} and set{z,x+y} and z is above 1.1 and close 1 day ago had been decreasing over the last 3 days and average volume(90) 1 day ago is above 100000 and close 1 day ago is between 1 and 10 and low 1 day ago is below lower bollinger band(20) 1 day ago and count(close 1 day ago above open 1 day ago,3) is below 2.1 and day change is below 0 and set{a,count(volume above volume 1 day ago,1)} and set{toptail,high-open} and set{bottail,close-low} and set{taildelta,bottail-toptail} and set{b,count(taildelta is below 0,1)} and set{c,a+b} and c is above 0


enjoy.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Muddy filter 3 day fail

Muddy posted this filter in comments, it's worth a blog entry for sure. This and other Muddy filters were routinely discussed on StockFetcher back in 2003-2005... I wish I had been around during that time. I'm still playing catch up. Luckily, Muddy is still around and still giving away his knowledge for free... and I will continue to take it and try to learn from it. My whole blog is dedicated to Muddy and 13th for their worldview of giving away knowledge for free, and of patient teaching and coaching. If you want something to be thankful for this week, let it be that.

Muddy 3 day fail filter

set{x,count(volume 3 days ago above volume 4 days ago,1)*2} and set{y,count(volume 3 days ago above average volume(90),3)} and set{z,x+y} and z is above 1.1 and close 3 days ago had been decreasing over the last 3 days and average volume(90) 3 days ago is above 100000 and close 3 days ago is between 1 and 10 and low 3 days ago is below lower bollinger band(20) 3 days ago and count(close 3 days ago above open 3 days ago,3) is below 2.1 and day change has been below 0 for the last 3 days and set{a,count(volume above volume 1 day ago,1)} and set{toptail,high-open} and set{bottail,close-low} and set{taildelta,bottail-toptail} and set{b,count(taildelta is above 0,1)} and set{c,a+b} and c is above 0 and set{d,count(volume 1 day ago above volume 2 days ago,1)} and set{toptaila,high 1 day ago-open 1 day ago} and set{bottaila,close 1 day ago-low 1 day ago} and set{taildeltaa,bottaila-toptaila} and set{e,count(taildeltaa is above 0,1)} and set{f,d+e} and f is above 0 and set{g,count(volume 2 days ago above volume 3 days ago,1)} and set{toptailb,high 2 days ago-open 2 days ago} and set{bottailb,close 2 days ago-low 2 days ago} and set{taildeltab,bottailb-toptailb} and set{h,count(taildeltab is above 0,1)} and set{i,g+h} and i is above 0 offset is 0


I'm really interested in talking to Muddy about how he analyzes upper and lower tails on candles.... perhaps there is something that can be put into calculator form...  I'll update if I ever come upon such information.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

The state of the blogosphere / Watches for Friday Nov 21

The sign of a mature blogosphere is that different blogs each find their own niche so that they all work together to make the collective more informative and interesting. 

In that regard, my niche may involve picking highly likely stocks to short that aren't based on recent strength, like Muddy and Timothy Sykes like to do. That is a great strategy that I like to follow as well, but if we all post the same watchlists then we aren't really working in symbiosis. In these market conditions, I find it somewhat astounding that traders would routinely ignore stocks that are steadily in decline, since that is where the majority of the market is. However, groupthink is easily created and difficult to break, especially when the groupthink involves a legitimately good idea.

Perhaps my ultimate role in the stock blogosphere may be to help devise simple calculators to help traders make more informed decisions about the trades they are making. The goal is to use the available information to the trader's advantage without getting too bogged down in statistical theory and the misguided notions of automated trading, which is part of the reason Avery Horton Jr. is so unpopular in certain trading circles, besides his personality flaws. I believe strongly that there is valuable information buried in the charts that is helpful to traders but is too sophisticated for the brain to analyze quantitatively, whereas once the trader has access to that information explicitly he/she may decide upon another course of action or at least verify the intuitive feelings they have about the trade. Technical indicators are an attempt to provide this information, but they all fall short somehow, leaving the serious trader wanting for a more reliable source for their upcoming decision making. Maybe stats can help in that regard; hopefully the idea of using stats in trading decisions hasn't been tainted by the unpleasant internet presence of "The Rumpled One".

That being said, simply listing the stats for my watchlist is useful but occasionally I should add some analysis as well.

AA EMC XLF LUV AMD C UYD BAC SSO

AA 81/31
EMC 81/26
XLF 81/37
LUV 81/26
AMD 84/53
C 74/47
UYG 71/37
BAC 74/32
SSO 77/16

So far I have discovered that the 80% mark is a meaningful threshold for solid performance as expected on a $DJI red day. Even stats as high as the 70's are not reliable as can be gleaned from an analysis of my previous watch lists. As you can see from the second part of the stat, most of these picks should be abandoned on a strong market rally day. That is the reason these stats were created in the first place. Change your strategy or stick with stocks that have a 'reliable' record of failure in the face of a strong headwind. In this regard, these kinds of stocks should be watched carefully when the overall market reverses intraday. An intraday reversal should be viewed in some ways as a market 'up' day. I will have much more to say about this situation in future posts. Also in the future I will post long watches on market rally days as well. Without running extensive scans I will say that LCC AMR UAUA are poised for a rally on the next strong day.

** UPDATE


I don't know how to say this any plainer folks. When the market flips, use the opposite indicator as your guide for shorts- or even better, use the lower number as your guide for longs, since the opposite action is inferred in the second statistic. Let's go through this again.

AA 81/31
EMC 81/26
XLF 81/37
LUV 81/26
AMD 84/53
C 74/47
UYG 71/37
BAC 74/32
SSO 77/16

AMD and C were the best probability shorts going into a market rally. The numbers reflect that. Let's look at other play options.

The bold number is the probability of shorting success on a $DJI green day- the inferred statistic is the opposite number, namely the probability of success long on a $DJI green day.

Those numbers are:

AA    69
EMC  74
XLF   63
LUV   74
AMD  47
C       53
UYG  63
BAC   68
SSO   84

Based on these numbers alone, I would have gone long on SSO.  AA was a surprise gain and you can never really predict those, but the SSO return was solid based on the stats. 

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Watches Thursday Nov. 20

F GM PLD URE AMD HIG HST AMAT XLF AA

I don't even know if it is possible to get shares of F and GM but if ever there was a time it is now. Look at the stats:

F 84/68
GM 87/78
PLD 87/37
URE 87/42
HST 81/21

Most stocks change dramatically whether or not the market is up or down. Look at GM: 87% chance of red on $DJI red, and 78% chance of red on $DJI green. Amazing.

Use this list as a supplement to Muddy's list for short watches based on recent (unsustainable) gains.

** UPDATE


Pretty good so far... AMAT had the lowest stat with "only" a 77% chance of going red... all others were 80%+ ... PLD was the highest with 87% (and my pick of the day for that reason)

Update

Had a good conversation with Ramtajogi last night, the calculators are in the works. I don't think we will set the world on fire but when we finally get to the holy grail, the Scenario Calculator, I think it will be pretty cool. Hope you agree.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

ADR support and resistance StockFetcher filter

For anyone who believes in the idea that average day range can be an indicator of intraday support and resistance (an idea I pioneered here), the following is a StockFetcher filter written to calculate these numbers. Not flashy but it saves me from having to use a calculator which I often find myself grabbing. Put in any stock symbols that you want to check; as many as you need separated by commas. This code was written by DaveH in chat; next time you see him tell him you appreciate his work (I do!).


SYMLIST(ABK,RDN,TMA)   /* enter whatever tickers you want to calculate here*/
set{range1ago, high 1 day ago - low 1 day ago}
set{range2ago, high 2 day ago - low 2 day ago}
set{range3ago, high 3 day ago - low 3 day ago}
set{range4ago, high 4 day ago - low 4 day ago}
set{range5ago, high 5 day ago - low 5 day ago}
set{tot12, range1ago + range2ago}
set{tot34, range3ago + range4ago}
set{tot1234, tot12 + tot34}
set{tot_15, tot1234 + range5ago}
set{range_avg15, tot_15 / 5}
add column range_avg15 {5day_avg_range}
set{hi_range, open + range_avg15}
add column open
add column hi_range
set{low_range, open - range_avg15}
add column low_range

Watches Wednesday Nov. 19

GTE BTIM IDMI HZO STXS FRPT MNI SMCI GBX 

The highest probabilities on $DJI red are MNI STXS 

Some short on weakness candidates are SKS IPG ABD

SKS  80/38
IPG  85/25
ABD  82/42

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Watches Monday Nov. 17

FUQI ONNN LIZ VECO PERY FONR BEE TLB OVEN CRBC

FUQI 61/32
ONNN 80/35
LIZ 66/30
VECO 90/40
PERY 74/38
FONR 50/45
BEE 72/26
TLB 75/45
OVEN 80/32
CRBC 66/35

The reason I sometimes post continual droppers is they have extremely high probabilities of going down on market red days based on the co-relation calculator (explained here). 90% probability for VECO on $DJI red is about the highest probability you are ever going to find (100 day period used here). 

Don't read too much into the fact that several of these involve women's fashion/make up.


** UPDATE


Looks like the stats held up pretty well. The weakest ones, FUQI and FONR went green while the strongest ones, ONNN, VECO, and OVEN performed as expected.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Late day spikes

This post is really an addendum to the one on what I look for in shorting candidates. Who knows why these late day spikes are so coordinated; just keep taking advantage of them while they happen. As per my short short watch list, here are NCT UMC RAS





This is what happened the last time NCT and RAS spiked:



History repeats itself tomorrow.